Yesterday in our normally sleepy city (as compared with larger cities) it was revealed that a bus driver who had interacted with several hundred people in the days preceding his positive test had contracted COVID-19.
Let’s look at a possible scenario of community spread from this one individual in an attempt to grasp how spread works.
This driver took over 100 cash fares during this time — possibly 10 whole days. Let’s imagine ten percent of these people carried the virus from him on the cash they took as change. Let’s also imagine the persons interacting with the driver all unknowingly interact with others as per normal. Certainly, a passing thought, “I could be infected,” but this is easily blown off, right? I know myself, it’s a normal human psychology to think this won’t happen to me! And think that the earliest interactions occurred at a time when we’re only mildly concerned about this coronavirus thing! (Yes, 16 days ago!)
Say those ten who are already carrying COVID-19 around with them are also interacting closely with 50-100 people over their next 5-10 days until they begin to show signs of having contracted it.
The nature of what we’re dealing with is a ‘too late’ scenario. The only way we have the chance of cutting it off is to take drastic measures 2-4 WEEKS before it’s arrived. It’s too late now. It’s here.
Those people who get it from the bus driver who also give it to some of their family, co-workers and passers-by will all unsuspectingly give it to another ten people each to carry for up to a week before they show symptoms.
So, we’re now in a situation where four, five, six degrees of separation have already occurred. In a city of 2 million everyone must assume they have the virus.
The thing with the spread of this is we will always be coming from behind. The precautions we’re taking now are those we should have been taking weeks ago, but of course we didn’t because we thought differently back then.
How quickly has our perception been shaped by what is happening around us!
The saddest part of this is many younger people — anyone younger than those in the danger zone — will think “this won’t get me, I’ll get it, but it won’t end me,” without realistically thinking of their neighbour who is 60, 70, 80, or has compromised health. We only sit up at attention if it’s our mother or father or grandparent who stands to die. Then there are some ambivalent older people who also don’t care.
The widest gap in society right now is the “you aren’t my neighbour” gap, when everyone truly is. Jesus said, “Love your neighbour as yourself.” This is the single biggest issue now.
Then there’s the thought of a lonely funeral. Imagine as a family having to decide who gets to go to the funeral? Imagine the grief of an already grieving family who cannot attend the funeral due to social distancing measures.
It’s not my intention to panic anyone, but we must realise that what hadn’t even entered our mentality four weeks ago is now here. Don’t dare to imagine what this is like four weeks — or four months from now.
The only chance we have is if we start acting now! This is like the climate change debate, but while we have people saying that’s a furphy, we will have ambivalence and all of society will suffer.
There will still be people doing what they damn well feel like and flouting the rules. We should not be surprised, for it has always happened, it’s just a whole lot more noticeable now.
NOTE: whilst I’m a counsellor, pastor and chaplain nowadays, my first degree was from the School of Public Health at Curtin University of Technology in Perth, Western Australia.
Photo by Mélissa Jeanty on Unsplash
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